Case File 302 · Investigation Psychology

What Does Opportunity Mean in an Investigation?

In a criminal investigation, opportunity means that a suspect was in a position to commit the crime. This usually comes down to physical presence: could the person have been at the scene at the time t

By Murder Book Editorial TeamPublished by Gungrounds, the studio making Murder BookPublished 3 October 2026Updated 3 October 2026

In a criminal investigation, opportunity means that a suspect was in a position to commit the crime. This usually comes down to physical presence: could the person have been at the scene at the time the offence occurred? Opportunity is one part of the traditional investigative framework of means, motive and opportunity, but it is not a formal legal element that the prosecution must prove. It is an organisational tool that helps investigators evaluate suspects and build timelines. Establishing that someone had opportunity does not prove guilt, just as the absence of apparent opportunity does not guarantee innocence.

Key takeaways

Opportunity refers to whether a suspect could have been present at the time and place of the crime.
It is an investigative concept, not a formal element of a criminal offence.
Digital evidence such as GPS data, phone records and surveillance footage has transformed how opportunity is assessed.
Having opportunity does not equal guilt, since many people may have been in a position to commit a crime without doing so.
Alibis are the primary way suspects challenge claims of opportunity, but alibi evidence varies widely in strength.

How do investigators establish opportunity?

Investigators build timelines by gathering evidence about where a suspect was before, during and after the crime. Traditional methods include witness interviews, employment records and physical evidence such as fingerprints or shoe prints at the scene. In recent decades, digital evidence has expanded this toolkit significantly.

GPS data from mobile phones, credit card transaction records, automatic number plate recognition, toll booth logs and CCTV footage can place a person at or near a specific location with a precision that earlier investigators did not have. Prosecutors use this data to construct minute-by-minute accounts of a suspect's movements. The strength of an opportunity argument often depends on whether the digital trail aligns with the physical evidence.

Does having opportunity mean someone is guilty?

No. Opportunity is one of the weakest individual indicators of guilt because it applies to so many people. In a workplace theft, every employee who was on site that day had opportunity. In a neighbourhood burglary, every resident within walking distance technically had opportunity. The concept only becomes meaningful when combined with other evidence, such as corroborating evidence linking the suspect to the act itself.

This is why investigators combine opportunity with means and motive. A person who was at the scene, had the tools to commit the act and had a reason to do so draws closer scrutiny. But even that combination is a basis for further investigation, not a verdict.

How does opportunity relate to routine activity theory?

Criminologists Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson proposed routine activity theory in 1979 to explain how crime occurs. Their model holds that a crime requires three elements converging in time and space: a motivated offender, a suitable target and the absence of capable guardianship. In this framework, opportunity is not just about the offender's presence but about the conditions that make a crime possible.

Cohen and Felson's insight was that changes in daily routines, such as more people leaving homes unoccupied during the day, can increase criminal opportunity even without any change in the number of motivated offenders. This broader view of opportunity is useful for understanding crime patterns, though it is less directly applied in individual case investigations.

How do suspects challenge opportunity?

The primary way a suspect challenges a claim of opportunity is through an alibi: evidence that they were somewhere else when the crime occurred. Alibi evidence can range from strong physical proof, such as a time-stamped security recording, to weaker forms such as testimony from a friend or family member.

Research on alibi evaluation has found that the relationship between a suspect and their alibi witness affects how believable the alibi appears. Culhane and Hosch found that mock jurors gave higher conviction rates when a defendant's girlfriend corroborated the alibi compared to when a neighbour did so. A stranger witness is generally considered the strongest form of person evidence because they are assumed to have no reason to lie for the suspect. For a fuller discussion of what makes alibi evidence persuasive, see what makes an alibi strong or weak.

Why can opportunity evidence point in more than one direction?

A single piece of opportunity evidence can support multiple theories. Placing a suspect near the scene shows they could have committed the crime, but it may also show they were simply going about their daily routine. A person who lives on the same street as the victim will always appear to have had opportunity. This is why investigators must weigh opportunity alongside evidence that may support more than one theory and actively consider innocent explanations for a suspect's presence.

The risk of overweighting opportunity is closely related to investigative tunnel vision. If investigators decide early that a particular suspect had opportunity and then build the rest of the case around that assumption, they may overlook evidence pointing to someone else. Good practice involves testing the opportunity claim rather than treating it as settled.

Can digital evidence create false impressions of opportunity?

Digital evidence is powerful but not infallible. A mobile phone's location data shows where the phone was, not necessarily where its owner was. A credit card transaction shows the card was used, not who used it. Investigators must consider alternative explanations for digital traces, just as they would for physical evidence. A phone left at home, a card lent to someone else, or a shared vehicle can all create misleading impressions of opportunity.

Equally, the absence of a digital trace does not prove a person was not present. A suspect who turned off their phone, paid in cash or avoided routes with cameras may have been at the scene without leaving a digital footprint. Investigators must avoid treating a clean digital record as proof that someone lacked opportunity, just as they avoid treating a digital trace as proof of guilt.

Does opportunity need to be proved at trial?

No. Like means and motive, opportunity is not a formal element of a criminal offence. A prosecutor does not need to prove that the defendant had opportunity in the way they must prove intent or the act itself. However, demonstrating that a suspect was present at the right time and place strengthens a circumstantial case, and failing to account for a suspect's whereabouts can weaken the prosecution's narrative in the eyes of a jury.

How does Murder Book explore opportunity?

Murder Book: The Art of Interrogation is an upcoming narrative interrogation game from Gungrounds, an independent studio in Zagreb, Croatia. Development screenshots show an evidence board linking statements to physical details, where players must assess whether a suspect's account of where they were holds up under questioning. The game's structure revolves around examining unreliable stories, behavioural changes and narrative gaps rather than accepting any single piece of evidence at face value. Cases are designed for focused 5–10-minute sessions. Murder Book is in development for PC (Steam) and mobile, with release currently planned for the end of Q2 2027.

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